Is Bitcoin going to range low again?
Last week Bitcoin tried to break out of the range, but it failed again. The break outs that are happening as of late do not really have any conviction behind it. Volume remains low and a lot of the major altcoins are printing new lows. That the altcoins are making new lows is something that concerns me. The whole ‘funding game’ is something that you do not really want to see in a market. Major players are pumping specific assets and are earning a lot of money from it. Yes you could play into it, but it is something that for the majority of people is quite difficult to do so. There is no new money coming in and everything looks like it is bleeding to death.. As most of you know, Bitcoin will always be the leading factor, so let’s dive into the price action of Bitcoin to see where we are and what we can expect over the coming days
A Bit More Patience
Nothing has changed structurally for BTC since I wrote the last Macro Monday Trade Letter two weeks ago. The bullish order block is still being respected, and accumulation continues. I expect 1 - 2 weeks of sideways chop, with potential mini “fakeouts” in both directions, but the main thing I am interested in seeing is whether the order block continues to hold. As long as we do not get a confirmed break of this support, it’s simply a waiting game. If price action continues to mimic some more of standard “bore them out of the market” fractals, once (if) things start moving to the upside, the move will be swift.
Altcoins Ready For A Breakout!
In this update we're looking at a few altcoins which might be ready for a breakout, as we see the strength across the board on altcoins moving left and right. On the other hand, the larger altcoins are showing weakness, so what can we expect as potential trade opportunities?
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How does the market look in the run-up to the FOMC meeting?
In this edition of the Trade Letter, I will examine various markets and express my expectations ahead of the FOMC meeting.
The end of rate hikes?
Investors are anticipating that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates during its upcoming meeting scheduled for September 19-20. It is expected that the Fed will temporarily refrain from raising rates and will choose to keep the federal funds target rate range steady, between 5.25% and 5.5%. Additionally, they are likely to continue allowing assets to roll off their $8.1 trillion balance sheet. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is currently navigating the challenge of achieving a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, with the goal of reducing inflation to approximately 2% without triggering an economic recession in the United States. While the S&P 500 has shown a year-to-date gain of 17.3%, driven by optimism regarding the direction of inflation, there have been recent indicators suggesting that the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation might be starting to have a noticeable impact on the economy, raising concerns.
Altcoins Ready For Bull Market?
The altcoins are breaking out left and right, so we can expect them to continue moving, but is it a valid move or are we just seeing ghosts in the markets and those are providing exit liquidity, which we'll most likely are going to get dropped back anyway?
Big event today! Is CPI going to be a trigger?
It's that time of the month again, as we receive CPI data from the US. This continues to be one of the crucial data points released each month. We have been observing for quite some time now that inflation in the US is decreasing, which is certainly a positive sign. We've experienced a lengthy period during which the FED aggressively raised interest rates, and that naturally had its consequences on financial markets. When interest rates are aggressively increased, the overall performance of risk-on assets in the markets tends to be less favorable. We witnessed this trend for an extended period, where we seemed to be stuck in a downward spiral. The tide is turning. As mentioned, inflation is on the decline, giving the FED fewer reasons to continue aggressively raising interest rates. Consequently, risk-on assets have more room to increase in value once again. One noteworthy point is that cryptocurrencies are not following the trend of other risk-on assets. However, these days tend to bring about more volatility, so the question is, what levels should you be watching? We'll discuss this in today's trade letter! We'll take a closer look at BTC to determine where I find it interesting to take action.
Bear PA to Condition Bulls?
Another week, another short lived uptick in BTC price this time barely pushing towards 26.5k$. The order block is still holding support. RSI is still in an upwards trajectory. Feels like bulls are getting conditioned to believe that “all breakout attempts fail anyways” and the bears are waiting for 12k$. Trading wise staying sidelined until the market picks a clear direction makes sense, at least before taking on heavy exposure. One news article or rumor could cause price to spike in either direction, but if that first move will then turn into a trend needs confirmation.
Altcoins Break Out, Is This The Start?
The markets have been seeing some interesting movements, as there's a rumour that the Blackrock ETF might be approved. Additionally, we can see that altcoins are breaking out already, which was expected to occur during this period of the cycle. How can you possibly trade them?