Look on the bright side..

Before I am going into the the technical part of the tradeletter, I would like to reflect on some facts. Today it is the 8th of November 2023. In this period of last year we had arguably the biggest black swan event in the crypto market in the name of the FTX debacle. Price dropped hard and in the matter of a couple of days we saw a decrease in value of around 30% on BTC and we hit the a low of $15.5K. A lot of people thought that it was over for crypto. Now a year later we are trading at prices around $35K which is more than a 100% gain for BTC and we should be really happy with that! Just realizing this should give you the trust that crypto is here to stay. In what form? I am not sure to be honest, but I do think that we will see implementation somewhere in the financial market.

Bulls vs Bears

We are seeing a lot of fighting between bulls and bears on social media, because are we in a bull market already? When you look at the monthly chart we can actually see that for 2023 as a whole is a complete uptrend since which is a good argument for bulls.
However you could also argue that we have traded back into premium levels on the monthly timeframe when you take a look at this fractal dealing range. The FVG that we are currently trading in could be the resistance area that Bitcoin is not able to overcome for a while.

Major gain on the weekly timeframe

To be honest, I am not really participating in the whole argument if we are in a bull or bearmarket. As a trader I do not really care. I try to detach myself from the complete market sentiment and I am just looking at my own thesis. So what would I do, to be honest I am not a fan to short against this recent strength unless I have the confirmation, but for now that is not the case as of yet. Something that is noticeable is the gain back into the old range of 2021/2022 (partly). the $31K level acted as major support and resistance but we have seen a strong candle close above that crucial level which was crucial to see higher prices. It would be great if we are able to get a S/R flip to see if this level would act as a good support level now.

Range high providing support

Currently we are trading above the range high and it could be the fact that we would see another deviation for a small retracement back into the range, but I would not be completely comfortable to short that. I would rather see a sweep of the relative equal highs first. If we drop back into the range afterwards that could provide a short opportunity.

In conclusion I would say detach yourself from the market and simply trade the trend as long as it is your friend. However be a little bit happy where we are in the market as a whole, we came from a very low point.

For now, have a nice day!

Written by: Daan Foppen


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